Key Learnings:

What you need to know about forecasting & demand planning

a. Fundamentals

1. Demand Planning vs. Forecasting
2. True Demand (Consumption data, Orders, Shipments, Invoice)
3. Leading vs. Lagging Indicators
4. Constrained vs. Unconstrained
5. Units of Measure
6. Time Buckets (Days & Business Days Per Month)

b. Formulas & Metrics(KPIs)

1. Performance
2. Accuracy
   1. Formula (4 Reasons-Actual)
   2. Lag
   3. Volume/Value
   4. Inventory Location (Level of Aggregation)
   5. Classification / Segmentation
3. Bias (Tracking Signal, ME, Buffers)
4. Histrorical Comparisons vs. Forecast

c. Reporting

1. Timely engaging reports
   1. Historical Forecasts
   2. Version Management
   3. Waterfall Analysis
   4. Orders to Net Sales
   5. Latest Estimate

Key Learnings:

Understanding and leveraging Your Demand Planning application

a. Navigation (GUI) & Features

1. Flexible Views
2. Characteristics
3. Key Figures (units) Amount (values) #s (factors)
4. Periodicity
5. Selected Objects
6. Create Selection Profiles
7. Planning Book/Data View

b. Graphics (chart engine)

c. Functionality & Capability

1. Disaggregation of Proportional Factors
2. Realignment
3. Upload/Download to Excel

d. Statistical Models (overview)

e. Configuration (setup and execution of the forecast in just Enough)

1. Activities
2. Jobs
3. Forecast Profiles
4. Mass Processing

f. Advanced Capabilities

1. Alert Monitor (Forecast Alerts & Macro/Database Alerts)
2. ABC / XYZ analysis
3. Life cycle planning
4. Like Modeling
5. Promotional / Event Planning

g. Master data and transaction data for planning

Key Learnings:

Types of forecasting methods: Quantitative, Qualitative (Expert Opinion), and Judgmental Extrapolative (time series) vs. Explanatory (cause and effect) methods
Preparing baseline Statistical forecasts
Interpretation of results

a. Concepts & Definitions

1. Data (Pattern vs. Error, Collection, Cleansing, Missing Data, Outliers. etc.)
2. Graphs
3. Relationships (pattern / components: base, trend, seasonal, cycle)

b. Descriptive Statistics

1. Error measurements

c. Times Series Decomposition

1. Assessing Trends
2. How to create a Seasonal Index

d. Model Evaluation Steps

1. Problem Definition
2. Data Collection
3. Exploratory Analysis
4. Model Selection
5. Model Evaluation (Initialization & Test Set)
   1. Log (Excel)
   2. Accuracy
   3. Lag Accuracy
   4. Perforrnance – Actual/Forecast Total by Month, Quarter, Year
   5. Model Refinement

e. Statistical Models (strengths & weaknesses)

1. Exponential Smoothing
2. Simple Regression
3. MLR
4. Application Specific Models (Auto, ESM, Time Series, Causal, Moving Averages)
5. Parameters

f. Analysis

1. Forecast Value Added Analysis
2. Reverse Forecasting (Backcasting)

Key Learnings:

Keys to an effective demand planning process
Collaborative Planning Forecasting Replenishment
Additional forecasting models and concepts
Improve the Demand Planning Process

a. Monthly Process

b. Classification / Segmentation

c. Low volume & Intermittent demand (volatile demand)

d. Exception Management

e. Market Intelligence (Advertising, Promotions, Pricing, Distribution Channels, etc.)

f. Assumptions Management

1. Rationale
2. Audit Trail

g. Benefits

1. Inventory
2. Service Levels
3. Optimal Use of Working Capital

h. Financial Impact of Forecast Error

1. Quantitative Analysis & Models

i. New Product Models

1. Comparable Product Analysis
2. Account Level Forecast Volumes
3. Scenario Analysis
4. Bayesian Model
5. Monte Carlo Simulation
6. Diffusion Models
7. Market Share Consumption Model (Ship Share)
8. Composite Model

Key Learnings:

Conducting an effective Demand Review
The importance of a consensus forecast
The importance of Integrated Business Planning

a. Demand Review

1. Discussion Topics
2. Action Item Register
3. Latest Estimate
4. Key Performance Indicators
5. Demand Plan (Statistical Forecast w/ adjustments)
6. Gap closing strategies
7. Action Item, Decisions, and outstanding Issues (elevated) reviewed
8. Meeting Wrap Up / Critique

b. Integrated Business Planning

1. IBP Defined
2. Roles & Responsibilities
3. Metrics

c. Review, Wrap up, and Questions