Quantitative Methods

As Great, A Scientific Progression As Possible

Quantitative Methods

Analysis should be anchored in data. Go beyond merely gathering and reporting data, by turning data into information, for more informed decision making.

A great supply chain begins with the most accurate demand forecast. Is your Statistical Forecasting Process in need of greater evaluation and analysis?  Why not start with the best statistical model?

Are you forecasting products that can’t be forecasted statistically? Learn how to become more productive and effective with a Demand Segmentation Analysis.

What performance is most important? Has your organization incorporated variance analysis with Management by Exception?

Finally, are New Product Volumes backed by analysis, rather than “I think”.

Statistical Model Selection & Parameter Optimization

Is your organization relying on the same Statistical Models & Parameter settings selected since your software implementation?

Do the users understand the Forecasting Application, its evaluation criteria and measurements…  MAD, MAPE, or RMSE.

 

Why not start with the best statistical model?

 

Model Selection – How often does your Demand Planning Team reevaluate the current statistical models?

Which Statistical Models are best for groups of historical data?

  • Univariate
  • Exponential Smoothing
  • Holt Winters
  • Multiple Linear Regression

Parameter Optimization – Does your Demand Planning Team have the proper education to interpret statistical results?

What is the effect of adjusting the Parameters?

  • Alpha
  • Beta
  • Gamma
  • Sigma

Are you leveraging these functionalities: Outlier Correction, Tracking Signal, and Trend Damping.

Uncover logical flaws that lead to decisions based on “inaccurate” information.

Demand Segmentation

Historical sales volumes and order patterns can identify the greatest value added opportunities to apply resources.

Have Demand Advantage perform a one time Demand Segmentation analysis for your organization.

Contact us about sending a sample data set.

 

 

DSQ

Learn about the different areas on the chart.

  • Greatest opportunity for improvement due to the pattern in the data
  • Little benefit in applying additional resources
  • Apply additional resources due to importance of the Items
  • Highly volatile and difficult to forecast Items

 

DSG

Management By Exception (MBE)

Exception Management is about variance analysis, the variance between the actual and planned, and the need to investigate the root cause, whether it’s performance or process management.

Exception reports identify items that require review, rather than reviewing all items, or thousands of item variances.

Demand Advantage analyzes your data, defines the criteria to determine which variances are significant, and designs an exception management process.

Exceptions:

  • Mix or Volume Issue
  • Tolerance Lanes
  • 80% / 20%
  • Standard Deviation

Good management is efficiency of the business processes, the true benefit of MBE is financial through time management.

New Product Introduction

Whether it’s a New Product Launch or Line Extension these are the lifeblood of many corporations.

Greater competition, more frequent new product launches, and shorter product life cycles have made forecasting increasingly complex.

Demand Advantage can calculate your NPI volumes and teach your team about the method and models.

Models:

  • Comparable Product Analysis
  • Account Level Forecast Volumes
  • Scenarios Analysis
  • Bayesian Model
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Diffusion Models
  • Market Share Consumption Model
  • Composite Model

Not only do we have a customized method for forecasting New Product Volumes, but we’ll clarify and introduce new aspects of NPIs that affect the launch.

Volumes backed by analysis, rather than “I think”.

Monte Carlo Method

Monte-carlo2

Comparison of random points
with the value of the function.

Monte Carlo 3

Market Share Consumption Model

Picture7